Regional predictions and validation of a bioclimatic niche model for the invasive Argentine ant: prioritising our ounce of prevention in the face of uncertainty
When it comes to managing invasive species an “ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure”. Nonetheless, not all sites are equally susceptible to invasion and there is considerable interest in prioritising the allocation of limited biosecurity resources. Bioclimatic niche models are a popular method for assessing the likelihood of establishment at different sites. Here we present and validate a set of fine-scale regional predictions generated from a coarse-scale global data set of ant records. Importantly, the predictions are associated with confidence intervals that allow decision makers to prioritise sites according to different risk-aversion or precautionary strategies. Kangaroo Island (South Australia), West Cape Howe (Western Australia) and Cape Reinga (New Zealand) were assessed as being at the highest average risk of invasion from Argentine ants, while estimates for Lord Howe Island varied widely indicating that this might be a high-risk site.